Thats bad news for another former congressman, former 7th District U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant, who represented the 7th District from 1994 to 2002, when he vacated his Seat to make a Republican primary race for the Senate seat now held by Lamar Alexander. Bryant and Hilleary, both by-the-book conservatives, are regarded as having overlapping voter and financial support and, more importantly, both gained statewide name recognition two years ago, when Hillleary was the GOP nominee for governor.
Both Bryant and Hilleary have reason to be concerned about another Republican candidate, Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, who has so far raised upwards of $2 million for the 2006 race and reportedly has good support in the GOP establishment, both state and national.
But another likely Senate candidate, 9th District U.S. Rep. Harold Ford Jr, sees a rosier outlook for the two former Republican congressmen.
"I don't think he'll get the nomination," the congressman said about Corkers prospects on Friday, after his attendance at President Bushs Social Security forum at the Cannon Center. "I think Bryant or Van Hilleary will. It doesn't matter how much money you have if people don't know you."
Fords statement was an acknowledgement of the fleeting nature of name recognition in politics. The seat being vacated in 2006 is that of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, who is considered likely to make a presidential race in 2008.
Of the six Republican candidates who ran for that seat 1994, only Frist remains well known across the state, at least among voters at large. Corker, who later served two years as former Governor Don Sundquists finance director, has a more limited range of recognition so far , centered around his political base in Chattanooga.
Corker is, however, busy making up for that shortcoming. He was in Memphis Monday night for a well-attended fundraiser at the home of high-stakes entrepreneur Brad Martin. And the Chattanoogans supporters in Shelby County include the local GOPs last three party chairmen, David Kustoff, Alan Crone, and Kemp Conrad.
Bryant is being backed by a number of local establishment figures as well -- notably former national Republican committeeman John Ryder. Hillearys local organization has yet to take shape, although Mike Carpenter, president of the Associated Builders and Contractors, had been helping Hilleary locally for some months.
Carpenter, however, is dropping out of state politics to concentrate on his own forthcoming race for the Shelby County Commission.
.Not to be ignored in all this conjuring, of course, is the only woman in the GOP primary race, state Rep. Beth Harwell of Nashville, the immediate past chairperson of the state Republican Party and no doubt the possessor of many political IOUs stemming from that service.
Harwells former statewide role is a reminder of an unresolved issue concerning Hilleary, who exercised some political muscle last year to get himself voted in as Ryders successor as national GOP committeeman from Tennessee. Does he get to keep that office, which entitles him to speak for all Tennessee Republicans, even as he vies against several others for senator?
At the very least, its a possible point of controversy.
Meanwhile, pending an announcement from Rep. Ford, state Representative Rosalind Kurita of Clarksville remains the only Democrat formally in the U.S. Senate race.
Rep. Ford was in attendance at President Bushs Social Security forum at the Cannon Center Friday and was one of several local dignitaries acknowledged by the president during his remarks. At one point, while speaking of the possibility of maintaining a Social safety net under his Social Security plan, Bush ad-libbed, Harold understands that.
That may be wishful thinking. The congressman has not signed on to the Bush proposal, having aligned himself, along with virtually all other Democratic members of Congress, in a solid front in opposition to the presidents plan -- or at least to that portion of it calling for private investment accounts funded by the Social Security tax.
Beyond that point, though, Ford seems willing to re-think the premises of Social Security -- a fact which continues to be highlighted by several national publications and pundits. USA Today featured Ford on its front page last week as one of six national figures whom it considered undecided on the issue of changing Social Security.
Thats probably an overstatement. But the congressman has put forward ideas of his own. He has introduced a bill -- the ASPIRE Act -- that would confer a government-funded birth grant to newborns to be used for investment purposes and suggested Friday, after Bushs presentation, that the president might think about something similar if he wants to alter the structure of Social Security.
As Ford sees it, any investment add-on should not only be funded from sources other than the Social Security tax but should have a progressive component, like that contained in ASPIRE, whereby citizens below a defined poverty line could expect proportionately greater investment fodder.
The Memphis congressman added a new wrinkle to that concept Friday. Among the issues he raised after the forum concerning Bushs plan was this one: What happens if people lose? Will some kind of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation be created? Ford seemed to be floating the idea of a governmental machinery that would cushion against losses that might occur through bad investments in sour lemons like Enron and WorldCom. A Fail-Safe mechanism, as it were, one that would allow profit but prevent unreasonable loss.
Believe it or not, the 2006 Shelby County countywide election has already begun -- with prospective candidates detaching themselves from the woodwork and beginning to organize campaign staffs and fundraisers.
The aforesaid Mike Carpenter intends to run for the District 1 county commission seat now held by John Willingham. Carpenter, who was among the unsuccessful applicants last year seeking to fill a vacancy in another District 1 seat last year, indicated he would campaign on the need for a new school-funding formula as well as on opposition to the concept of a converting The Pyramid into a casino, a longtime project of Willinghams.
Another applicant for that District 1 vacancy last year is Mike Rich, who intends to run for yet another district seat, the one currently held by Marilyn Loeffel, and has been attending commission meetings with some regularity of late.
The commissioner who ended up filling the District 1 vacancy last year, George Flinn, is likely to draw opposition from Karla Templeton, Willinghams daughter and yet another former applicant for the seat. Thats if her father, who continues to have complications resulting from former heart surgery, follows through on his current intention to run again for his own seat. If he doesnt, his daughter will likely turn her attentions to that seat.
Loeffel is known to be thinking of a race for the job of Shelby County clerk, which incumbent Jayne Creson has indicated she will retire from.